About That Debate, And About Joe Biden
Thoughts on the stakes, what happened Thursday night and where Democrats might go from here
This week’s presidential debate gave me a chance to write about some of the big choices voters face in November -- choices that, in many cases, aren’t getting nearly the attention they should.
On Wednesday, I offered a deep dive into the fight over electric vehicles, which is about a lot more than cars and Detroit.
On Thursday, I wrote about two overlooked moments in the debate -- one about economic policy, one about insulin prices -- that revealed a great deal about the very different ways Joe Biden and Donald Trump have governed.
And then on Friday, I explained why a Supreme Court decision with potential to wreck the modern regulatory state is the result of a 50-year effort by conservatives that will keep advancing with a Trump win.
But there is another subject I haven’t had a chance to address: Biden’s addled, halting performance and its implications.
At this point, the media calls from for him to step aside have become deafening. Pretty much every New York Times columnist of consequence is part of the chorus and on Friday evening the Times editorial board itself added its voice. An even larger group, including longtime allies like MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough and the hosts of Pod Save America, are saying the option should be on the table.
I took particular note of this essay in the Atlantic by my friend and former colleague Franklin Foer, who spent more than a year watching the Biden administration up close for his book, The Last Politician. Frank sees unmistakable signs of aging and its effects, and invoked the example of taking the keys away from an aging relative no longer able to drive.
I’m not sure I have a lot to add to that assessment. I think Biden’s impressive record of accomplishment suggests that he has been more than up to the job, and like so many others (including Frank) I hear frequently from people who have worked with or around Biden. They say he is fully engaged, fully able to make decisions and carry out his duties.
But I also saw what all of you saw Thursday. Even if Biden’s limits extend only to his communication abilities, reaching the public is a big part of running for president — and holding the office too.
It’s not in my current job description to weigh this evidence or to recommend a course of action. But perhaps I can shed some light on an important part of the conversation unfolding right now.
If Biden were to step aside, what then?
The Democratic Bench
The Democratic Party’s bench happens to be pretty deep right now, full of plausible contenders including a number of relatively young, accomplished governors.
Some may be familiar to you, others not. The list includes (in no particular order, and not exhaustively) Roy Cooper from North Carolina, Gavin Newsom from California, Jared Polis from Colorado, J.B. Pritzker from Illinois and Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania. I’m not an expert on any of them, though I reported on Cooper’s successful campaign to expand Medicaid in his Southern state and can tell you that was no small feat.
The list of plausible contenders also includes Gretchen Whitmer, about whom I know quite a bit more, having lived in Michigan for more than 20 years and followed her political career closely.
Here’s what I can tell you about Whitmer: She has a record of policy accomplishments and forceful advocacy that align with the Democratic Party. She’s an effective, trusted defender of abortion rights at a time when the issue is atop the agenda. She has serious social media game in an era when it’s the only way to reach many voters.
Whitmer also has a combination of relatability and authenticity that can win over voters even when they disagree with her. I heard that frequently while covering her 2022 reelection bid. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had that quality. So did George W. Bush.
All three had plenty of haters too, of course. That’s certainly true for Whitmer. And like the three of them -- and, really, anybody in politics -- she’s got plenty of weaknesses to go with her strengths, both when it comes to governance and campaigning.
All of that came up in my lengthy 2022 profile, if you want to learn more about her.
But mainly my thought for anybody contemplating her on the ticket is that, at this point, she’s untested on a national stage. And that would be true for any of the governors on the list of possibilities. Even political professionals underestimate what it takes to run for president. Even the best natural politicians need time to master the skills.
The Unique Challenges Of A Presidential Campaign
Of course, there are some potential Democratic candidates who do have that experience. One of them is Vice President Kamala Harris.
The widely shared assumption is that she’d a weak challenger to Trump, based partly on her quick fade in the 2020 Democratic primaries and the perception she’s been an underwhelming, ineffectual vice president. Two lengthy profiles from the fall -- one in the Atlantic, one in the New York Times -- didn’t exactly shatter that perception.
I don’t know enough about Harris to assess her performance in office, and her liabilities as a politician seem real. Still, I wonder if her potential strengths get enough attention.
She is a quick-witted, sharp questioner whose skills translate well to the debate stage. She too has a record of advocacy on behalf of Democratic causes, including vital ones like rights for domestic workers that don’t get a lot of national attention but could make a big difference to a lot of people.
Harris would face all the familiar perils of running in a country where many voters aren’t ready (consciously or unconsciously) to embrace a strong-willed woman of color. But she could also set up a vivid contrast to the aging Trump, his posse of white nationalists and his supporters’ revanchist agenda. That could rally younger voters and Black voters, whose have not embraced Biden with the enthusiasm a Democrat probably needs to win.
Harris’ poll numbers have been negative for a while, though recently there have been signs of improvement. In any event, it seems entirely plausible that public perceptions could change with sustained, direct exposure to Harris on the campaign trail. She might even benefit from the low expectations, insofar as they’re disconnected to anything she’s actually done.
One Path Forward
Or maybe not! I don’t know for sure and neither does anybody else.
But there are still a few weeks before Biden’s nomination becomes official. If he decides to step aside, he could release his delegates, opening up an audition for whatever Democratic politicians want to run. I imagine the audition would include meetings and speeches, interviews and maybe a debate or two.
The delegates would vote at the convention, or in a pre-convention virtual vote currently planned because of a ballot issue in Ohio. Ezra Klein suggested more or less this path earlier this year, as you may have heard. Harris would seem like the obvious front-runner and most likely winner, though I think other Democrats would have a legitimate shot.
Could that strategy fail? Absolutely. Then again, so could a Biden candidacy. There’s no certainty for Democrats anymore, no safe choice on the table. It’s a matter of deciding which high-risk option makes the most sense, given the risks that would come with another Trump presidency.