How The Biden Campaign Looks From Michigan
A pair of dispatches, and some thoughts on political grief
The “Five Stages of Grief” is one of the most overused analogies in political journalism. But it’s hard not to see those five stages -- denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance -- playing out as President Joe Biden fights to keep his place as the 2024 Democratic nominee.
It’s been nearly a month since Biden started facing calls to withdraw from the campaign, following the debate performance that raised so many doubts about his capabilities. As of this writing, more than 30 Democratic lawmakers have said they think Biden should step aside. Many more are saying so privately. And that’s on top of all the columnists, activists and party funders who have been issuing pleas of their own.
If this pressure is getting to Biden, he’s not showing it publicly. He’s been defiant in meetings, interviews and events, saying he is determined to stay in the race and that his critics are underestimating him, just like they have in the past.
“I’m the nominee of the Democratic Party, the only Democrat or Republican who has ever beaten Donald Trump,” Biden said during a Detroit rally last week, using one of his new favorite lines. “And I’m going to beat him again.”
I was at that event and I can confirm that it was as strong a performance as Biden has given since this whole saga began. He was lively and focused, feeding off the energy from a raucous crowd of what looked to me like several thousand people. Afterwards, I wasn’t surprised to see his supporters -- many of whom reposted/retweeted my dispatch approvingly -- say it was proof that Biden is up to the job.
But the rally speech was also under nearly perfect conditions. Biden was reading from a teleprompter, reciting attacks on Trump he’s given dozens of times before. And he was doing it in front of a friendly crowd deeply invested in his success. The performance didn’t reveal much about his capacity in high-pressure, unscripted settings like debates and interviews that have given him such trouble, and caused this crisis in faith.
The event was also the first time I saw Biden give an extended version of an argument that his aides had already been making -- that the push to have him step aside is really just an effort by party leaders, funders and other members of the political elite to override the wishes of Democratic Party voters.
Last week, in the days before the rally, I decided to test that theory by speaking with some officials and political organizers from Detroit’s Black community. Few groups are as dependably loyal to Democrats as Black Americans. Their overwhelming support of Biden in 2020 was critical to his victories in both the primaries and general election.
Links from HuffPost:
“Why Black Voters' Affection For Joe Biden May Not Save His Candidacy”
“In Detroit, Joe Biden Vows To Defy Skeptics And Defeat Trump”
The affection is still there, the Detroit officials and organizers told me. But the voters they know are all asking the same questions as everybody else. Is Biden really up for this? Can they count on him to keep Trump out of the White House? And if Biden steps aside, what happens next?
The officials and organizers said they are picking up lots of mixed feelings, even when it comes to the prospect of Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the nominee. But, they said, it doesn’t feel like a determination to keep Biden on the ticket.
“They’re not married to Biden,” one pastor and political activist told me. “He’s still a means to an end.”
When I wrote the article, which you can read here, I was careful to point out that the handful of sources I consulted might not be representative of Black Democratic voters, or of Democratic voters more generally. But it turns out they probably are.
In an AP/NORC poll last week, nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters -- and half of Black Democrats -- said they thought Biden should step aside. A Split Ticket/Data for Progress poll produced similar results.
Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and other Democratic leaders meeting with Biden privately have cited results like these as evidence that the party would be better off with another nominee. They have also been careful to praise Biden’s record as president, especially when speaking in public.
This is partly strategic, on the theory that flattery will make Biden more receptive to their entreaties. But it’s also genuine. They admire and respect and love Biden. They realize they’re asking him to take what would be an extraordinary act of selfless patriotism, at least by the standards of American politics.
If Biden steps aside, my suspicion is that it will only make him look better in the eyes of history. But the converse is also true. By staying in the race, he risks tarnishing his image, to say nothing of what it would mean for his policy accomplishments and the country.
Biden is hearing these appeals. But is he listening? That’s harder to say.
Multiple media reports suggest he still thinks he’s the Democrats’ best shot to win, and that he’s furious at Democratic leaders like Pelosi and former President Barack Obama for working behind the scenes to get him off the ticket. He’s making policy promises to progressives, who have emerged as his most vocal reporters. He is reportedly -- and understandably -- glum about his situation.
Denial, anger, bargaining, depression -- they’re all there. We’ll have to see if acceptance is next.